About xgprophet

What xgprophet is

xgprophet is a single, focused project: it produces a forecast for each upcoming match and explains, in plain terms, where that forecast comes from. For every game the model estimates home, draw and away win probabilities, a most-likely scoreline, expected goals for each side, the chance of over 2.5 goals, the chance of both teams scoring, and a confidence figure.

Forecasts are pre-match only. They are a snapshot taken before kick-off and are not updated once a match is under way. There is no live in-play feed and no live odds anywhere on the site. Fixtures and results are ingested on a schedule into a database, and the pages you read are built from that stored data.

An optional written summary accompanies some predictions. This is generated by a language model that is kept strictly to the figures the statistical model has produced. It does not invent statistics, injuries, line-ups, transfers, news or quotes — it only puts the model's own numbers into readable English.

What makes it different

Many prediction sites ask you to take their accuracy on faith. xgprophet tries to do the opposite. Two things are meant to let you judge it for yourself: an open description of how the model works, and a public accuracy record that updates automatically and is not edited after the fact.

The principle is simple: show the work, and do not sell certainty. The model is described openly so you can weigh it on its merits rather than on a marketing claim. When a match finishes, its prediction is settled against the real result and rolled into the public figures — so the record grows on its own as games are played, rather than being curated by hand.

Two figures are published per competition. Outcome accuracy asks whether the model called the result correctly — home win, draw or away win. Exact-score accuracy asks whether it named the exact scoreline. Both are shown plainly, the hits and the misses alike, because a record only means anything if it includes the misses.

How the model works

At its core is a Poisson model — a long-established, deliberately simple way of modelling goals. For each team it estimates an attack rate (goals scored) and a defence rate (goals conceded) from recent form, looking at the last several matches.

Those recent-form estimates are then shrunk towards a team-strength prior. This stops the model from over-reacting to a small sample: a strong side still reads as strong on thin early-season or early-tournament data, and a weaker side is not over-rated on the back of one good result. The home side's expected goals get a modest uplift for home advantage, except at neutral-venue competitions such as the World Cup, where no home edge is applied.

It is a deliberately simple, first-version model, and it is honest about its limits. It does not use injuries, suspensions, line-ups, transfers, weather, or any market or odds signal. It does not update during a match — every forecast is a pre-match snapshot. It is built to be transparent and easy to scrutinise; it is not a profit system, and past accuracy does not predict future results.

How it stays honest

The accuracy record is the heart of the project, so it is kept under strict rules. Nothing is cherry-picked and nothing is deleted. Once a prediction is made it stays on the record, and once it is settled against the real result it stays settled — a wrong call is left in plain view rather than quietly removed.

Because forecasts are pre-match only and fixed before kick-off, they cannot be revised with hindsight. There is no live odds feed to chase and no after-the-fact tinkering. The figures you see are the whole record, exactly as the matches landed.

Who is behind it

xgprophet is run by one person — an independent developer building this as a solo project. There is no company, no team, no panel of experts, and no claimed years of authority behind it. The intention is simply to be straightforward about that.

What this project asks you to judge it on is what can be checked — the open description of the model and the public, never-deleted accuracy record — rather than credentials or reputation. If you have a question, a correction, or want to point out where the model gets something wrong, that feedback is genuinely welcome at hello@xgprophet.com.

Independence and how it is funded

xgprophet is funded by affiliate links to gambling operators licensed in Great Britain. Where that feature is enabled, the site may display clearly labelled advertisements, and if you open an account with an operator after following one, xgprophet may receive a commission. This costs you nothing extra; any commission comes from the operator's own marketing budget. It is stated openly here rather than buried.

Funding and editorial output are kept separate. The predictions, probabilities and accuracy figures come entirely from the model and are not influenced by which operators advertise. The forecasts and the accuracy record are not for sale — no operator can pay to be featured, favoured, or shown in a better light within the analysis.

A note before you read on

xgprophet is intended only for adults aged 18 and over. Everything here is published for information only. It is not betting advice, it is not a tip or a recommendation to place a wager, and it carries no guarantee of any outcome. Predictions are uncertain by their nature, and any result can go the other way.

Gambling should only ever be an occasional, affordable form of entertainment — never a way to make money or to recover money already lost. Free, confidential support is available at any time from GamCare on 0808 8020 133, and you can self-exclude from all gambling sites licensed in Great Britain through GAMSTOP. Please gamble responsibly. When the fun stops, stop.