World Cup 2026 predictor
Poisson-model probabilities for every WC2026 match — updated after each result. Not user picks: real data. How the model works →
Outcome (1X2) accuracy 63% · 63 settledPast results do not guarantee future outcomes
No upcoming WC2026 fixtures in our database right now. Check back after the next match day.
Recent results
19 JulSpain1–0Argentinapred 51%/20%18 JulFrance4–6Englandpred 54%/22%15 JulEngland1–2Argentinapred 32%/45%14 JulFrance0–2Spainpred 33%/31%12 JulArgentina3–1Switzerlandpred 42%/33%11 JulNorway1–2Englandpred 21%/60%10 JulSpain2–1Belgiumpred 56%/16%9 JulFrance2–0Moroccopred 57%/19%
Round-by-round predictions
Round of 32 · Round of 16 · Quarter-finals · Semi-finals · Third-place Play-off · Final prediction
How we predict
Our WC2026 predictions use a Poisson distribution model calibrated on each team’s recent international form. Unlike most predictors that ask you to pick winners, we show model probabilities — the percentage chance each team wins, draws, or loses. The model updates after every match result. Pre-tournament leader Spain (16.1% Opta) may now sit behind France; our live numbers reflect that. Full methodology →
World Cup 2026 FAQ
- How is the WC2026 bracket structured?
- 48 teams across 12 groups of four. The top two from each group, plus the eight best third-place finishers, advance to the new Round of 32 — then Round of 16, Quarter-finals (9–11 Jul), Semi-finals (14–15 Jul) and the Final on 19 July 2026.
- How does your model work?
- A Poisson model estimates expected goals from recent form. We compute a full score-grid to give exact win/draw/loss percentages — not vibe picks. More detail →
- When is the WC2026 final?
- 19 July 2026 at MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, New Jersey.
- Is this betting advice?
- No. xgprophet is information only. Probabilities reflect our statistical model, not guaranteed outcomes. 18+ only. Please gamble responsibly: GamCare 0808 8020 133 · GAMSTOP.
xgprophet · Poisson model · WC2026 · 18+ · information only, not betting advice