Algeria 3–3 Austria result
Full-time result
xgprophet predicted 1-1 · outcome: Austria
Prediction vs actual
The match produced 6 goals, above our pre-match expected goals estimate of 3.0. Our Poisson model projected Algeria to generate 1.3xG and Austria 1.7xG. Algeria's 3 goals came exceeding their pre-match xG projection; Austria's 3 came against a projection of 1.7xG.
View our full accuracy record →Win probability
Model read
Recent form
Algeria
Austria
Analysis
Limited data — early in the competitionThe model forecasts Austria as favourites with a 47% win probability compared to Algeria's 29%, though a draw at 24% remains plausible given the teams' recent mixed form. Expected goals of 1.7 for Austria and 1.3 for Algeria suggest a competitive match, with the most-likely outcome predicted as a 1-1 draw. Both teams to score is forecast at 60% probability, and over 2.5 goals at 58%, indicating the model expects an open encounter.
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xgprophet · model poisson-v1.2 · predictions read from cached data, never live odds