Argentina 3–2 Cape Verde Islands result
Full-time result
xgprophet predicted 1-0 · outcome: Argentina
Prediction vs actual
The match produced 5 goals, above our pre-match expected goals estimate of 2.2. Our Poisson model projected Argentina to generate 1.7xG and Cape Verde Islands 0.5xG. Argentina's 3 goals came exceeding their pre-match xG projection; Cape Verde Islands's 2 came against a projection of 0.5xG.
View our full accuracy record →Win probability
Model read
Recent form
Argentina
Cape Verde Islands
Analysis
Model: poisson-v1.2The model forecasts Argentina as clear favourites, assigning them a 66% win probability with an expected most-likely scoreline of 1-0, though the 35% chance of over 2.5 goals suggests meaningful uncertainty in the outcome. Argentina's recent wins contrast with Cape Verde Islands' three consecutive draws, reflected in the xG forecast of 1.6 to 0.5 in Argentina's favour. Given limited recent data for both sides, the model's confidence should be treated as provisional rather than definitive.
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xgprophet · model poisson-v1.2 · predictions read from cached data, never live odds