Argentina 3–2 Egypt result
Full-time result
xgprophet predicted 2-0 · outcome: Argentina
Prediction vs actual
The match produced 5 goals, above our pre-match expected goals estimate of 2.9. Our Poisson model projected Argentina to generate 2.0xG and Egypt 0.9xG. Argentina's 3 goals came exceeding their pre-match xG projection; Egypt's 2 came against a projection of 0.9xG.
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Model read
Recent form
Argentina
Egypt
Analysis
Model: poisson-v1.2The model forecasts Argentina as clear favourites with a 63% win probability and a most-likely scoreline of 2-0, supported by an expected goals advantage of 2.0 to 0.9. Argentina's recent form of four consecutive wins contrasts sharply with Egypt's inconsistent record of one win in four matches, reinforcing the projection of a dominant performance. There is a 55% probability of over 2.5 goals and a 51% chance of both teams scoring, indicating the model expects an open contest despite Argentina's superiority.
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xgprophet · model poisson-v1.2 · predictions read from cached data, never live odds