Argentina 3–1 Switzerland result
Full-time result
xgprophet predicted 1-1 · outcome: Argentina
Prediction vs actual
The match produced 4 goals, above our pre-match expected goals estimate of 2.6. Our Poisson model projected Argentina to generate 1.4xG and Switzerland 1.2xG. Argentina's 3 goals came exceeding their pre-match xG projection; Switzerland's 1 came against a projection of 1.2xG.
View our full accuracy record →Win probability
Model read
Recent form
Argentina
Switzerland
Analysis
Model: poisson-v1.2The model forecasts a closely contested match, with Argentina favoured at 42% win probability but Switzerland presenting genuine threat at 33%, while a 1-1 draw is the most likely outcome at 26% probability. Expected goals of 1.4 for Argentina and 1.2 for Switzerland suggest an evenly balanced encounter, with both teams to score predicted at 54% and over 2.5 goals at 50%. Argentina's recent form shows five consecutive wins compared to Switzerland's mixed record of three wins and two draws, though the model's probabilities indicate this advantage is modest.
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xgprophet · model poisson-v1.2 · predictions read from cached data, never live odds