Australia 1–1 Egypt result
Full-time result
xgprophet predicted 0-1 · outcome: Egypt


Prediction vs actual
The match produced 2 goals, closely matching our pre-match expected goals estimate. Our Poisson model projected Australia to generate 0.9xG and Egypt 1.1xG. Australia's 1 goal came inline with their pre-match projection; Egypt's 1 came against a projection of 1.1xG.
View our full accuracy record →Win probability
Model read
Recent form
Australia
Egypt
Analysis
Model: poisson-v1.2The model forecasts Egypt as narrow favourites, assigning them a 41% win probability compared to Australia's 29%, with a draw at 30%. Expected goals favour Egypt slightly at 1.1 to Australia's 0.9, and the most-likely scoreline is a 0-1 away victory, though both teams scoring is projected at 40% likelihood. A low-scoring contest is anticipated, with under 2.5 goals favoured at 67% probability.
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xgprophet · model poisson-v1.2 · predictions read from cached data, never live odds