What was the result of Belgium vs Senegal?

Belgium 3–2 Senegal. xgprophet predicted 2-1 — outcome call was correct.

What did xgprophet predict for Belgium vs Senegal?

xgprophet predicted 2-1 with win probabilities of home 52% / draw 22% / away 26%.

PREDICTIONS/FIFA World Cup 2026

Wed, 1 Jul 2026 · 20:00 UTCRound of 32Lumen Field

Belgium 3–2 Senegal result

Full-time result

Belgium3–2Senegal✓ Outcome correct

xgprophet predicted 2-1 · outcome: Belgium

BelgiumBEL

PREDICTED2-1most-likely score52% confidence

SenegalSEN

Belgium predictions →Senegal predictions →

Outcome (1X2) accuracy 63% · 63 settledPast results do not guarantee future outcomes

Prediction vs actual

2-1

Predicted score

3–2

Actual score

2.1–1.4

Pre-match xG

✓

Outcome call

The match produced 5 goals, above our pre-match expected goals estimate of 3.5. Our Poisson model projected Belgium to generate 2.1xG and Senegal 1.4xG. Belgium's 3 goals came exceeding their pre-match xG projection; Senegal's 2 came against a projection of 1.4xG.

View our full accuracy record →

Win probability

52%

22%

26%

BEL win 52%Draw 22%SEN win 26%

What is 1X2? →

Model read

2.1–1.4

Expected goals

68%

Over 2.5

66%

Both score

52%

Confidence

Recent form

Belgium

LWWWD

Senegal

LWLL

Analysis

Model: poisson-v1.2

The model forecasts Belgium as slight favourites with a 52% win probability, predicting a most-likely scoreline of 2-1, supported by an expected goals advantage of 2.1 to 1.4. Both teams to score is forecast at 66%, with over 2.5 goals at 68%, suggesting an open match despite Belgium's superior recent form of one win in three compared to Senegal's one win in three.

18+

AI forecast for information and entertainment only — not betting advice and no guarantee of outcome. Please gamble responsibly. If gambling affects you or someone you know, support is available at GamCare (0808 8020 133) and GAMSTOP.

xgprophet · model poisson-v1.2 · predictions read from cached data, never live odds