Bosnia & Herzegovina 3–1 Qatar result
Full-time result
xgprophet predicted 1-1 · outcome: Bosnia & Herzegovina
Prediction vs actual
The match produced 4 goals, above our pre-match expected goals estimate of 3.4. Our Poisson model projected Bosnia & Herzegovina to generate 2.0xG and Qatar 1.4xG. Bosnia & Herzegovina's 3 goals came exceeding their pre-match xG projection; Qatar's 1 came against a projection of 1.4xG.
View our full accuracy record →Win probability
Model read
Recent form
Bosnia & Herzegovina
Qatar
Analysis
Limited data — early in the competitionThe model forecasts a competitive encounter, with Bosnia & Herzegovina narrowly favoured at 51% to win, though a draw at 22% remains plausible given both sides' recent mixed form. Expected goals of 2.0 for Bosnia & Herzegovina against 1.4 for Qatar suggest a slight attacking advantage, with the model assessing a 66% probability of over 2.5 goals and a 65% chance of both teams scoring. The most likely outcome is a 1-1 draw, though the forecast should be treated with caution given limited recent data for both nations.
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xgprophet · model poisson-v1.2 · predictions read from cached data, never live odds