PREDICTIONS/FIFA World Cup 2026
Mon, 29 Jun 2026 · 17:00 UTCRound of 32NRG Stadium

Brazil 2–1 Japan result

Full-time result

Brazil2–1Japan✓ Outcome correct

xgprophet predicted 1-0 · outcome: Brazil

Brazil crest
BrazilBRA
PREDICTED1-0most-likely score54% confidence
Japan crest
JapanJAP
Brazil predictions →Japan predictions →
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Outcome (1X2) accuracy 63% · 63 settledPast results do not guarantee future outcomes

Prediction vs actual

1-0
Predicted score
2–1
Actual score
1.7–1.0
Pre-match xG
✓
Outcome call

The match produced 3 goals, closely matching our pre-match expected goals estimate. Our Poisson model projected Brazil to generate 1.7xG and Japan 1.0xG. Brazil's 2 goals came inline with their pre-match projection; Japan's 1 came against a projection of 1.0xG.

View our full accuracy record →

Win probability

54%
24%
22%
BRA win 54%Draw 24%JAP win 22%

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Model read

1.7–1.0
Expected goals
49%
Over 2.5
50%
Both score
54%
Confidence

Recent form

Brazil

LWWWD

Japan

LDWD

Analysis

Model: poisson-v1.2

The model forecasts Brazil as favourites with a 54% win probability and a most-likely scoreline of 1-0, supported by an expected goals advantage of 1.7 to 1.0. A draw is given a 24% chance, whilst Japan's probability of victory stands at 22%, reflecting their recent mixed form of one win and two draws. The match is closely balanced for both teams to score, at 50%, with the over 2.5 goals market at 49%.

18+

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xgprophet · model poisson-v1.2 · predictions read from cached data, never live odds