Brazil 1–2 Norway result
Full-time result
xgprophet predicted 2-1 · outcome: Brazil
Prediction vs actual
The match produced 3 goals, below our pre-match expected goals estimate of 3.6. Our Poisson model projected Brazil to generate 2.6xG and Norway 1.0xG. Brazil's 1 goal came falling short of their pre-match xG projection; Norway's 2 came against a projection of 1.0xG.
View our full accuracy record →Win probability
Model read
Recent form
Brazil
Norway
Analysis
Model: poisson-v1.2The xgprophet model forecasts Brazil as strong favourites with a 71% win probability, predicting a most-likely scoreline of 2-1 in their favour. Brazil's expected goals of 2.6 significantly exceed Norway's 1.0, reflecting their superior attacking threat, whilst the model assesses a 71% probability of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance both teams score. Brazil's recent form of three wins and a draw contrasts with Norway's more inconsistent record, supporting the model's expectation of a Brazilian victory.
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xgprophet · model poisson-v1.2 · predictions read from cached data, never live odds