Canada 0–3 Morocco result
Full-time result
xgprophet predicted 1-1 · outcome: Canada
Prediction vs actual
The match produced 3 goals, closely matching our pre-match expected goals estimate. Our Poisson model projected Canada to generate 1.4xG and Morocco 1.3xG. Canada's 0 goals came falling short of their pre-match xG projection; Morocco's 3 came against a projection of 1.3xG.
View our full accuracy record →Win probability
Model read
Recent form
Canada
Morocco
Analysis
Model: poisson-v1.2The model forecasts a closely contested match with Canada favoured at 41% to win, though a draw at 26% and Morocco victory at 33% reflect the competitive nature of the fixture. Expected goals are nearly balanced at 1.4 for Canada and 1.3 for Morocco, with the most-likely outcome a 1-1 draw, whilst both teams to score is predicted at 55% probability. Recent form shows both sides in reasonable shape, with Canada's mixed record (W-L-W-D) slightly edged by Morocco's (D-W-W-D), and the model suggests a 50-50 proposition for over 2.5 goals.
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xgprophet · model poisson-v1.2 · predictions read from cached data, never live odds