Sat, 4 Jul 2026 · 01:30 UTCRound of 32Arrowhead Stadium

Colombia vs Ghana prediction

Colombia crest
ColombiaCOL
PREDICTED1-0most-likely score49% confidence
Ghana crest
GhanaGHA
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Outcome (1X2) accuracy 61% · 31 settledPast results do not guarantee future outcomes

Win probability

49%
32%
19%
COL win 49%Draw 32%GHA win 19%

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Model read

1.10.6
Expected goals
24%
Over 2.5
29%
Both score
49%
Confidence

Recent form

Colombia

DWW

Ghana

LDW

Analysis

Model: poisson-v1.2

The model forecasts Colombia as narrow favourites with a 49% win probability, though a draw is also likely at 32%, with Ghana given an 18% chance. Expected goals favour Colombia at 1.1 to 0.6, and the most-likely outcome is a 1-0 win for the home side, though the probability of both teams scoring stands at 29%. Over 2.5 goals is predicted at just 24%, suggesting a relatively tight contest despite Colombia's slight edge.

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xgprophet · model poisson-v1.2 · predictions read from cached data, never live odds