PREDICTIONS/FIFA World Cup 2026
Sat, 4 Jul 2026 · 01:30 UTCRound of 32Arrowhead Stadium

Colombia 1–0 Ghana result

Full-time result

Colombia1–0Ghana✓ Outcome correct

xgprophet predicted 1-0 · outcome: Colombia

Colombia crest
ColombiaCOL
PREDICTED1-0most-likely score49% confidence
Ghana crest
GhanaGHA
Colombia predictions →Ghana predictions →
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Outcome (1X2) accuracy 63% · 63 settledPast results do not guarantee future outcomes

Prediction vs actual

1-0
Predicted score
1–0
Actual score
1.1–0.6
Pre-match xG
✓
Outcome call

The match produced 1 goal, below our pre-match expected goals estimate of 1.7. Our Poisson model projected Colombia to generate 1.1xG and Ghana 0.6xG. Colombia's 1 goal came inline with their pre-match projection; Ghana's 0 came against a projection of 0.6xG.

View our full accuracy record →

Win probability

49%
33%
18%
COL win 49%Draw 33%GHA win 18%

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Model read

1.1–0.6
Expected goals
24%
Over 2.5
29%
Both score
49%
Confidence

Recent form

Colombia

DWDWW

Ghana

LLDW

Analysis

Model: poisson-v1.2

The model forecasts Colombia as narrow favourites with a 49% win probability, though a draw is also likely at 32%, with Ghana given an 18% chance. Expected goals favour Colombia at 1.1 to 0.6, and the most-likely outcome is a 1-0 win for the home side, though the probability of both teams scoring stands at 29%. Over 2.5 goals is predicted at just 24%, suggesting a relatively tight contest despite Colombia's slight edge.

18+

AI forecast for information and entertainment only — not betting advice and no guarantee of outcome. Please gamble responsibly. If gambling affects you or someone you know, support is available at GamCare (0808 8020 133) and GAMSTOP.

xgprophet · model poisson-v1.2 · predictions read from cached data, never live odds