Congo DR 3–1 Uzbekistan result
Full-time result
xgprophet predicted 1-0 · outcome: Congo DR
Prediction vs actual
The match produced 4 goals, above our pre-match expected goals estimate of 2.8. Our Poisson model projected Congo DR to generate 2.0xG and Uzbekistan 0.8xG. Congo DR's 3 goals came exceeding their pre-match xG projection; Uzbekistan's 1 came against a projection of 0.8xG.
View our full accuracy record →Win probability
Model read
Recent form
Congo DR
Uzbekistan
Analysis
Limited data — early in the competitionThe model forecasts a competitive encounter, with Congo DR favoured at 58% win probability against Uzbekistan's 21%, though a 1-1 draw is the single most likely outcome at 22%. Expected goals of 2.0 for Congo DR and 1.1 for Uzbekistan suggest a relatively open match, with the model assessing a 59% probability of over 2.5 goals and 57% chance of both teams scoring. Given limited recent form data, these projections should be treated as indicative rather than definitive.
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xgprophet · model poisson-v1.2 · predictions read from cached data, never live odds