Ecuador 2–1 Germany result
Full-time result
xgprophet predicted 0-1 · outcome: Germany
Prediction vs actual
The match produced 3 goals, closely matching our pre-match expected goals estimate. Our Poisson model projected Ecuador to generate 0.7xG and Germany 1.9xG. Ecuador's 2 goals came exceeding their pre-match xG projection; Germany's 1 came against a projection of 1.9xG.
View our full accuracy record →Win probability
Model read
Recent form
Ecuador
Germany
Analysis
Limited data — early in the competitionThe model forecasts Germany as clear favourites with a 65% win probability, predicting a most-likely scoreline of 0-1 and an expected goals advantage of 1.9 to 0.8. Ecuador's recent form shows mixed results (draw, loss) compared to Germany's consecutive wins, though the model suggests a competitive match with a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. Given limited recent data, these projections should be treated as indicative rather than definitive.
AI forecast for information and entertainment only — not betting advice and no guarantee of outcome. Please gamble responsibly. If gambling affects you or someone you know, support is available at GamCare (0808 8020 133) and GAMSTOP.
xgprophet · model poisson-v1.2 · predictions read from cached data, never live odds