Egypt 1–1 Iran result
Full-time result
xgprophet predicted 1-1 · outcome: Egypt
Prediction vs actual
The match produced 2 goals, below our pre-match expected goals estimate of 2.6. Our Poisson model projected Egypt to generate 1.5xG and Iran 1.1xG. Egypt's 1 goal came falling short of their pre-match xG projection; Iran's 1 came against a projection of 1.1xG.
View our full accuracy record →Win probability
Model read
Recent form
Egypt
Iran
Analysis
Limited data — early in the competitionThe xgprophet model forecasts a closely contested match between Egypt and Iran, with Egypt slight favourites at 45% win probability against Iran's 29%, though a draw is also plausible at 26%. Expected goals of 1.5 for Egypt and 1.1 for Iran suggest a narrow scoreline, with the model's most-likely outcome a 1-1 draw; both teams to score is projected at 52% probability. Given limited recent form data, the forecast carries appropriate uncertainty, though both sides' recent draws indicate competitive balance.
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xgprophet · model poisson-v1.2 · predictions read from cached data, never live odds