PREDICTIONS/FIFA World Cup 2026
Wed, 15 Jul 2026 · 19:00 UTCSemi-finalsMercedes-Benz Stadium

England 1–2 Argentina result

Full-time result

England1–2Argentina✓ Outcome correct

xgprophet predicted 1-1 · outcome: Argentina

England crest
EnglandENG
PREDICTED1-1most-likely score45% confidence
Argentina crest
ArgentinaARG
England predictions →Argentina predictions →
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Outcome (1X2) accuracy 63% · 63 settledPast results do not guarantee future outcomes

Prediction vs actual

1-1
Predicted score
1–2
Actual score
1.5–1.8
Pre-match xG
✓
Outcome call

The match produced 3 goals, closely matching our pre-match expected goals estimate. Our Poisson model projected England to generate 1.5xG and Argentina 1.8xG. England's 1 goal came falling short of their pre-match xG projection; Argentina's 2 came against a projection of 1.8xG.

View our full accuracy record →

Win probability

32%
23%
45%
ENG win 32%Draw 23%ARG win 45%

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Model read

1.5–1.8
Expected goals
63%
Over 2.5
64%
Both score
45%
Confidence

Recent form

England

WLWWW

Argentina

LWWWW

Analysis

Model: poisson-v1.2

The model forecasts Argentina as narrow favourites with a 45% win probability compared to England's 32%, though a draw is also plausible at 23%. Expected goals of 1.5 for England and 1.8 for Argentina suggest a competitive match, with the model assigning a 64% probability to both teams scoring and a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals, with the most likely outcome a 1-1 draw.

18+

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xgprophet · model poisson-v1.2 · predictions read from cached data, never live odds