PREDICTIONS/FIFA World Cup 2026
Wed, 15 Jul 2026 · 19:00 UTCSemi-finalsNeutral venue

England vs Argentina prediction

England crest
EnglandENG
PREDICTED1-1most-likely score45% confidence
Argentina crest
ArgentinaARG
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Outcome (1X2) accuracy 64% · 59 settledPast results do not guarantee future outcomes

Win probability

32%
23%
45%
ENG win 32%Draw 23%ARG win 45%

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Model read

1.5–1.8
Expected goals
63%
Over 2.5
64%
Both score
45%
Confidence

Recent form

England

WWWWD

Argentina

WWWWW

Analysis

Model: poisson-v1.2

The model forecasts Argentina as narrow favourites with a 45% win probability compared to England's 32%, though a draw is also plausible at 23%. Expected goals of 1.5 for England and 1.8 for Argentina suggest a competitive match, with the model assigning a 64% probability to both teams scoring and a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals, with the most likely outcome a 1-1 draw.

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All tips this weekend → · Over 2.5 tips (63%) → · What is xG? →

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19:00Tue, 14 Jul 2026France0-0Spain
18+

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xgprophet · model poisson-v1.2 · predictions read from cached data, never live odds