England vs Congo DR prediction

Analysis

The xgprophet model forecasts England as favourites with a 58% win probability, though a draw remains plausible at 24%. Expected goals of 1.7 for England against 0.8 for Congo DR suggest a narrow England victory, with the model's most-likely scoreline being 1-0, though there is a 46% chance the match produces over 2.5 goals. Both teams show mixed recent form, with England unbeaten in their last three matches whilst Congo DR have won one of their last three games.