PREDICTIONS/FIFA World Cup 2026
Wed, 1 Jul 2026 · 16:00 UTCRound of 32Mercedes-Benz Stadium

England 2–1 Congo DR result

Full-time result

England2–1Congo DR✓ Outcome correct

xgprophet predicted 1-0 · outcome: England

England crest
EnglandENG
PREDICTED1-0most-likely score58% confidence
Congo DR crest
Congo DRCON
England predictions →Congo DR predictions →
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Outcome (1X2) accuracy 63% · 63 settledPast results do not guarantee future outcomes

Prediction vs actual

1-0
Predicted score
2–1
Actual score
1.7–0.8
Pre-match xG
✓
Outcome call

The match produced 3 goals, above our pre-match expected goals estimate of 2.5. Our Poisson model projected England to generate 1.7xG and Congo DR 0.8xG. England's 2 goals came inline with their pre-match projection; Congo DR's 1 came against a projection of 0.8xG.

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Win probability

58%
24%
18%
ENG win 58%Draw 24%CON win 18%

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Model read

1.7–0.8
Expected goals
46%
Over 2.5
46%
Both score
58%
Confidence

Recent form

England

WLWWW

Congo DR

LWLD

Analysis

Model: poisson-v1.2

The xgprophet model forecasts England as favourites with a 58% win probability, though a draw remains plausible at 24%. Expected goals of 1.7 for England against 0.8 for Congo DR suggest a narrow England victory, with the model's most-likely scoreline being 1-0, though there is a 46% chance the match produces over 2.5 goals. Both teams show mixed recent form, with England unbeaten in their last three matches whilst Congo DR have won one of their last three games.

18+

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xgprophet · model poisson-v1.2 · predictions read from cached data, never live odds