France vs England prediction

Analysis

The xgprophet model forecasts France as narrow favourites with a 54% win probability, predicting a most-likely scoreline of 1-0 to the hosts and an expected goals advantage of 1.7 to 1.0. Both teams arrive in strong recent form with identical four-win records, though the model suggests a relatively tight encounter with a 50% probability of over 2.5 goals and a 51% chance both sides find the net. England's 22% win probability reflects their underdog status in this quarter-final matchup.