PREDICTIONS/FIFA World Cup 2026
Sat, 18 Jul 2026 · 21:00 UTC3rd Place FinalHard Rock Stadium, Miami Garden

France 4–6 England result

Full-time result

France4–6England✗ Outcome incorrect

xgprophet predicted 1-0 · outcome: France

France crest
FranceFRA
PREDICTED1-0most-likely score54% confidence
England crest
EnglandENG
France predictions →England predictions →
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Outcome (1X2) accuracy 63% · 63 settledPast results do not guarantee future outcomes

Prediction vs actual

1-0
Predicted score
4–6
Actual score
1.7–1.0
Pre-match xG
✗
Outcome call

The match produced 10 goals, above our pre-match expected goals estimate of 2.7. Our Poisson model projected France to generate 1.7xG and England 1.0xG. France's 4 goals came exceeding their pre-match xG projection; England's 6 came against a projection of 1.0xG.

View our full accuracy record →

Win probability

54%
24%
22%
FRA win 54%Draw 24%ENG win 22%

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Model read

1.7–1.0
Expected goals
50%
Over 2.5
51%
Both score
54%
Confidence

Recent form

France

LLWWW

England

WLWWW

Analysis

Model: poisson-v1.2

The xgprophet model forecasts France as narrow favourites with a 54% win probability, predicting a most-likely scoreline of 1-0 to the hosts and an expected goals advantage of 1.7 to 1.0. Both teams arrive in strong recent form with identical four-win records, though the model suggests a relatively tight encounter with a 50% probability of over 2.5 goals and a 51% chance both sides find the net. England's 22% win probability reflects their underdog status in this quarter-final matchup.

18+

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xgprophet · model poisson-v1.2 · predictions read from cached data, never live odds