France 0–2 Spain result
Full-time result
xgprophet predicted 0-0 · outcome: Draw
Prediction vs actual
The match produced 2 goals, above our pre-match expected goals estimate of 1.5. Our Poisson model projected France to generate 0.8xG and Spain 0.7xG. France's 0 goals came falling short of their pre-match xG projection; Spain's 2 came against a projection of 0.7xG.
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Model read
Recent form
France
Spain
Analysis
Model: poisson-v1.2The model forecasts a closely contested match with France given a marginal 33% win probability against Spain's 31%, whilst a draw is most likely at 37%. Both sides arrive in excellent form with five consecutive victories, though expected goals favour France slightly at 0.8 to Spain's 0.7, with the model's most-likely outcome a goalless draw and only a 20% probability of over 2.5 goals.
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xgprophet · model poisson-v1.2 · predictions read from cached data, never live odds