Tue, 14 Jul 2026 · 19:00 UTCSemi-finalsNeutral venue

France vs Spain prediction

France crest
FranceFRA
PREDICTED0-0most-likely score37% confidence
Spain crest
SpainSPA
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Outcome (1X2) accuracy 63% · 57 settledPast results do not guarantee future outcomes

Win probability

33%
36%
31%
FRA win 33%Draw 36%SPA win 31%

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Model read

0.80.7
Expected goals
20%
Over 2.5
28%
Both score
37%
Confidence

Recent form

France

WWWWW

Spain

WWWWW

Analysis

Model: poisson-v1.2

The model forecasts a closely contested match with France given a marginal 33% win probability against Spain's 31%, whilst a draw is most likely at 37%. Both sides arrive in excellent form with five consecutive victories, though expected goals favour France slightly at 0.8 to Spain's 0.7, with the model's most-likely outcome a goalless draw and only a 20% probability of over 2.5 goals.

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xgprophet · model poisson-v1.2 · predictions read from cached data, never live odds