PREDICTIONS/FIFA World Cup 2026
Tue, 30 Jun 2026 · 21:00 UTCRound of 32MetLife Stadium

France 3–0 Sweden result

Full-time result

France3–0Sweden✓ Outcome correct

xgprophet predicted 3-1 · outcome: France

France crest
FranceFRA
PREDICTED3-1most-likely score81% confidence
Sweden crest
SwedenSWE
France predictions →Sweden predictions →
Post on X →
Outcome (1X2) accuracy 63% · 63 settledPast results do not guarantee future outcomes

Prediction vs actual

3-1
Predicted score
3–0
Actual score
3.5–1.1
Pre-match xG
✓
Outcome call

The match produced 3 goals, below our pre-match expected goals estimate of 4.6. Our Poisson model projected France to generate 3.5xG and Sweden 1.1xG. France's 3 goals came falling short of their pre-match xG projection; Sweden's 0 came against a projection of 1.1xG.

View our full accuracy record →

Win probability

81%
FRA win 81%Draw 11%SWE win 8%

What is 1X2? →

Model read

3.5–1.1
Expected goals
84%
Over 2.5
65%
Both score
81%
Confidence

Recent form

France

LLWWW

Sweden

LDLW

Analysis

Model: poisson-v1.2

The xgprophet model forecasts France as strong favourites, assigning them an 81% win probability with a most-likely scoreline of 3-1. France's expected goals of 3.5 significantly exceed Sweden's 1.1, reflecting their superior recent form of three consecutive wins compared to Sweden's mixed record. The model suggests an 84% probability of over 2.5 goals and a 65% chance both teams score.

18+

AI forecast for information and entertainment only — not betting advice and no guarantee of outcome. Please gamble responsibly. If gambling affects you or someone you know, support is available at GamCare (0808 8020 133) and GAMSTOP.

xgprophet · model poisson-v1.2 · predictions read from cached data, never live odds