PREDICTIONS/FIFA World Cup 2026
Mon, 29 Jun 2026 · 20:30 UTCRound of 32Gillette Stadium

Germany 1–1 Paraguay result

Full-time result

Germany1–1Paraguay✗ Outcome incorrect

xgprophet predicted 2-0 · outcome: Germany

Germany crest
GermanyGER
PREDICTED2-0most-likely score74% confidence
Paraguay crest
ParaguayPAR
Germany predictions →Paraguay predictions →
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Outcome (1X2) accuracy 63% · 63 settledPast results do not guarantee future outcomes

Prediction vs actual

2-0
Predicted score
1–1
Actual score
2.6–0.9
Pre-match xG
✗
Outcome call

The match produced 2 goals, below our pre-match expected goals estimate of 3.5. Our Poisson model projected Germany to generate 2.6xG and Paraguay 0.9xG. Germany's 1 goal came falling short of their pre-match xG projection; Paraguay's 1 came against a projection of 0.9xG.

View our full accuracy record →

Win probability

74%
16%
GER win 74%Draw 16%PAR win 10%

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Model read

2.6–0.9
Expected goals
67%
Over 2.5
54%
Both score
74%
Confidence

Recent form

Germany

DLWW

Paraguay

LDDWL

Analysis

Model: poisson-v1.2

The xgprophet model forecasts Germany as clear favourites against Paraguay, with a most-likely scoreline of 2-0 and a 74% probability of a German victory. Expected goals of 2.6 for Germany and 0.9 for Paraguay suggest a significant attacking advantage, with the model assessing a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% probability of both teams scoring. Germany's recent form of one loss and two wins contrasts with Paraguay's mixed record of a draw, win and loss.

18+

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xgprophet · model poisson-v1.2 · predictions read from cached data, never live odds