Japan 1–1 Sweden result
Full-time result
xgprophet predicted 3-1 · outcome: Japan
Prediction vs actual
The match produced 2 goals, below our pre-match expected goals estimate of 4.8. Our Poisson model projected Japan to generate 3.2xG and Sweden 1.6xG. Japan's 1 goal came falling short of their pre-match xG projection; Sweden's 1 came against a projection of 1.6xG.
View our full accuracy record →Win probability
Model read
Recent form
Japan
Sweden
Analysis
Limited data — early in the competitionThe xgprophet model forecasts Japan as clear favourites, assigning them a 69% win probability with an expected most-likely scoreline of 3-1. Japan's superior expected goals output of 3.2 compared to Sweden's 1.6 underpins the prediction, with the model suggesting an 86% probability of over 2.5 goals and a 77% chance both teams score. However, given limited recent form data available, this forecast should be treated as indicative rather than definitive.
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xgprophet · model poisson-v1.2 · predictions read from cached data, never live odds