PREDICTIONS/FIFA World Cup 2026
Wed, 1 Jul 2026 · 01:00 UTCRound of 32Estadio Banorte

Mexico 2–0 Ecuador result

Full-time result

Mexico2–0Ecuador✓ Outcome correct

xgprophet predicted 1-0 · outcome: Mexico

Mexico crest
MexicoMEX
PREDICTED1-0most-likely score54% confidence
Ecuador crest
EcuadorECU
Mexico predictions →Ecuador predictions →
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Outcome (1X2) accuracy 63% · 63 settledPast results do not guarantee future outcomes

Prediction vs actual

1-0
Predicted score
2–0
Actual score
1.2–0.5
Pre-match xG
✓
Outcome call

The match produced 2 goals, closely matching our pre-match expected goals estimate. Our Poisson model projected Mexico to generate 1.2xG and Ecuador 0.5xG. Mexico's 2 goals came exceeding their pre-match xG projection; Ecuador's 0 came against a projection of 0.5xG.

View our full accuracy record →

Win probability

54%
31%
15%
MEX win 54%Draw 31%ECU win 15%

What is 1X2? →

Model read

1.2–0.5
Expected goals
25%
Over 2.5
28%
Both score
54%
Confidence

Recent form

Mexico

LWWWW

Ecuador

LWDL

Analysis

Model: poisson-v1.2

The model forecasts Mexico as favourites with a 54% win probability and a most-likely scoreline of 1-0, supported by an expected goals advantage of 1.2 to 0.5. Mexico's recent form of three consecutive wins contrasts with Ecuador's mixed record, though a draw remains probable at 31% according to the projection. Both teams to score is predicted at just 28%, with over 2.5 goals unlikely at 25%.

18+

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xgprophet · model poisson-v1.2 · predictions read from cached data, never live odds