Mexico 2–3 England result
Full-time result
xgprophet predicted 1-0 · outcome: Mexico
Prediction vs actual
The match produced 5 goals, above our pre-match expected goals estimate of 1.8. Our Poisson model projected Mexico to generate 1.1xG and England 0.7xG. Mexico's 2 goals came exceeding their pre-match xG projection; England's 3 came against a projection of 0.7xG.
View our full accuracy record →Win probability
Model read
Recent form
Mexico
England
Analysis
Model: poisson-v1.2The model forecasts Mexico as slight favourites with a 45% win probability and a most-likely scoreline of 1-0, supported by their superior expected goals output of 1.1 compared to England's 0.7. England's recent form remains strong at three wins from four, though Mexico arrive unbeaten with four consecutive victories, which aligns with the model's projection of a competitive encounter. A draw is predicted in 31% of outcomes, with both teams scoring in just 35% of simulations, suggesting a tight match likely decided by fine margins.
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xgprophet · model poisson-v1.2 · predictions read from cached data, never live odds