Morocco 4–2 Haiti result
Full-time result
xgprophet predicted 1-0 · outcome: Morocco
Prediction vs actual
The match produced 6 goals, above our pre-match expected goals estimate of 2.4. Our Poisson model projected Morocco to generate 1.9xG and Haiti 0.5xG. Morocco's 4 goals came exceeding their pre-match xG projection; Haiti's 2 came against a projection of 0.5xG.
View our full accuracy record →Win probability
Model read
Recent form
Morocco
Haiti
Analysis
Limited data — early in the competitionThe xgprophet model forecasts Morocco as clear favourites, assigning them a 72% win probability with an expected most-likely scoreline of 1-0, supported by their superior expected goals output of 1.9 compared to Haiti's 0.5. Morocco's recent mixed form of a win and draw contrasts with Haiti's consecutive losses, though the model notes limited recent data for both sides. The probability of over 2.5 goals stands at 42%, with both teams scoring in 32% of the model's simulations.
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xgprophet · model poisson-v1.2 · predictions read from cached data, never live odds