PREDICTIONS/FIFA World Cup 2026
Tue, 30 Jun 2026 · 01:00 UTCRound of 32Estadio BBVA

Netherlands 1–1 Morocco result

Full-time result

Netherlands1–1Morocco✗ Outcome incorrect

xgprophet predicted 2-1 · outcome: Netherlands

Netherlands crest
NetherlandsNET
PREDICTED2-1most-likely score50% confidence
Morocco crest
MoroccoMOR
Netherlands predictions →Morocco predictions →
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Outcome (1X2) accuracy 63% · 63 settledPast results do not guarantee future outcomes

Prediction vs actual

2-1
Predicted score
1–1
Actual score
2.0–1.5
Pre-match xG
✗
Outcome call

The match produced 2 goals, below our pre-match expected goals estimate of 3.5. Our Poisson model projected Netherlands to generate 2.0xG and Morocco 1.5xG. Netherlands's 1 goal came falling short of their pre-match xG projection; Morocco's 1 came against a projection of 1.5xG.

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Win probability

50%
21%
29%
NET win 50%Draw 21%MOR win 29%

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Model read

2.0–1.5
Expected goals
69%
Over 2.5
68%
Both score
50%
Confidence

Recent form

Netherlands

DWWD

Morocco

LWDWW

Analysis

Model: poisson-v1.2

The model forecasts a competitive encounter with the Netherlands favoured at 50% win probability against Morocco's 29%, with a most-likely scoreline of 2-1 to the Dutch. Expected goals of 2.0 for the Netherlands and 1.5 for Morocco suggest an attacking contest, with the model assigning 69% probability to over 2.5 goals and 68% to both teams scoring. Both sides arrive in strong recent form with two wins apiece, though the Netherlands edge the xG metrics in this neutral-venue fixture.

18+

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xgprophet · model poisson-v1.2 · predictions read from cached data, never live odds