Sat, 11 Jul 2026 · 21:00 UTCQuarter-finalsHard Rock Stadium

Norway vs England prediction

Norway crest
NorwayNOR
PREDICTED1-2most-likely score60% confidence
England crest
EnglandENG
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Outcome (1X2) accuracy 63% · 52 settledPast results do not guarantee future outcomes

Win probability

21%
19%
60%
NOR win 21%Draw 19%ENG win 60%

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Model read

1.42.5
Expected goals
74%
Over 2.5
70%
Both score
60%
Confidence

Recent form

Norway

WWLWW

England

WWWDW

Analysis

Model: poisson-v1.2

The model forecasts England as clear favourites with a 60% win probability, predicting a most-likely scoreline of 1–2 in their favour, supported by an expected goals advantage of 2.5 to 1.4. Norway's recent form is solid at four wins in five, though England's consistency—four wins and a draw from their last five—suggests the stronger current trajectory. The model assesses a 74% probability of over 2.5 goals and a 69% chance of both teams scoring.

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All tips this weekend · BTTS tips (70%) → · Over 2.5 tips (74%) → · What is xG? →

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xgprophet · model poisson-v1.2 · predictions read from cached data, never live odds