Norway 1–2 England result
Full-time result
xgprophet predicted 1-2 · outcome: England
Prediction vs actual
The match produced 3 goals, below our pre-match expected goals estimate of 3.9. Our Poisson model projected Norway to generate 1.4xG and England 2.5xG. Norway's 1 goal came inline with their pre-match projection; England's 2 came against a projection of 2.5xG.
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Model read
Recent form
Norway
England
Analysis
Model: poisson-v1.2The model forecasts England as clear favourites with a 60% win probability, predicting a most-likely scoreline of 1–2 in their favour, supported by an expected goals advantage of 2.5 to 1.4. Norway's recent form is solid at four wins in five, though England's consistency—four wins and a draw from their last five—suggests the stronger current trajectory. The model assesses a 74% probability of over 2.5 goals and a 69% chance of both teams scoring.
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xgprophet · model poisson-v1.2 · predictions read from cached data, never live odds