Norway 1–4 France result
Full-time result
xgprophet predicted 1-2 · outcome: France
Prediction vs actual
The match produced 5 goals, above our pre-match expected goals estimate of 3.8. Our Poisson model projected Norway to generate 1.3xG and France 2.5xG. Norway's 1 goal came inline with their pre-match projection; France's 4 came against a projection of 2.5xG.
View our full accuracy record →Win probability
Model read
Recent form
Norway
France
Analysis
Limited data — early in the competitionThe model forecasts France as clear favourites, assigning them a 63% win probability with an expected goals advantage of 2.5 to Norway's 1.3, and projects a most-likely scoreline of 1-2. Both sides arrive in strong recent form with consecutive wins, though the data set is limited; the model suggests a 72% probability of over 2.5 goals and a 66% chance both teams score.
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xgprophet · model poisson-v1.2 · predictions read from cached data, never live odds