Paraguay 0–1 France result
Full-time result
xgprophet predicted 0-2 · outcome: France
Prediction vs actual
The match produced 1 goal, below our pre-match expected goals estimate of 3.0. Our Poisson model projected Paraguay to generate 0.5xG and France 2.5xG. Paraguay's 0 goals came falling short of their pre-match xG projection; France's 1 came against a projection of 2.5xG.
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Model read
Recent form
Paraguay
France
Analysis
Model: poisson-v1.2The model forecasts France as strong favourites, assigning them an 81% win probability with an expected most-likely scoreline of 0-2. Paraguay's recent form of one win in four matches contrasts sharply with France's four consecutive victories, and the expected goals projection of 0.5 to 2.5 reflects a significant quality gap between the sides. There is a 59% probability of over 2.5 goals and a 38% chance both teams score.
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xgprophet · model poisson-v1.2 · predictions read from cached data, never live odds