Portugal 2–1 Croatia result
Full-time result
xgprophet predicted 1-0 · outcome: Portugal
Prediction vs actual
The match produced 3 goals, closely matching our pre-match expected goals estimate. Our Poisson model projected Portugal to generate 2.0xG and Croatia 0.8xG. Portugal's 2 goals came inline with their pre-match projection; Croatia's 1 came against a projection of 0.8xG.
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Model read
Recent form
Portugal
Croatia
Analysis
Model: poisson-v1.2The model forecasts Portugal as clear favourites with a 65% win probability and an expected most-likely scoreline of 1-0, supported by their superior expected goals output of 2.0 compared to Croatia's 0.8. Portugal's recent form shows mixed results with one win and two draws, whilst Croatia arrive on the back of two consecutive victories, though the underlying metrics suggest Portugal should control the match. The model indicates a 53% probability of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring, reflecting meaningful uncertainty around the final margin despite Portugal's advantage.
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xgprophet · model poisson-v1.2 · predictions read from cached data, never live odds