Portugal 0–1 Spain result
Full-time result
xgprophet predicted 0-1 · outcome: Spain
Prediction vs actual
The match produced 1 goal, below our pre-match expected goals estimate of 1.6. Our Poisson model projected Portugal to generate 0.6xG and Spain 1.0xG. Portugal's 0 goals came falling short of their pre-match xG projection; Spain's 1 came against a projection of 1.0xG.
View our full accuracy record →Win probability
Model read
Recent form
Portugal
Spain
Analysis
Model: poisson-v1.2The model forecasts Spain as favourites with a 44% win probability against Portugal's 22%, with a 34% chance of a draw; the most-likely outcome is a 0-1 victory for Spain. Spain's superior expected goals (1.0 vs 0.6) reflects their recent form of three wins in four matches, whilst Portugal's more mixed record of two wins and two draws suggests they may struggle to break down their opponents. A low-scoring contest is predicted, with only a 22% probability of over 2.5 goals and a 29% chance of both teams scoring.
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xgprophet · model poisson-v1.2 · predictions read from cached data, never live odds