Portugal 5–0 Uzbekistan result
Full-time result
xgprophet predicted 2-0 · outcome: Portugal
Prediction vs actual
The match produced 5 goals, above our pre-match expected goals estimate of 3.4. Our Poisson model projected Portugal to generate 2.6xG and Uzbekistan 0.8xG. Portugal's 5 goals came exceeding their pre-match xG projection; Uzbekistan's 0 came against a projection of 0.8xG.
View our full accuracy record →Win probability
Model read
Recent form
Portugal
Uzbekistan
Analysis
Limited data — early in the competitionThe model forecasts Portugal as clear favourites, projecting a 2–0 scoreline as most likely with a 75% win probability, whilst Uzbekistan are given a 10% chance despite their recent loss. Expected goals favour Portugal at 2.6 to Uzbekistan's 0.8, though the model suggests a 52% probability of both teams scoring, indicating some uncertainty in the outcome. Given limited recent form data, these predictions should be treated as indicative rather than definitive.
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xgprophet · model poisson-v1.2 · predictions read from cached data, never live odds