Scotland 0–3 Brazil result
Full-time result
xgprophet predicted 0-1 · outcome: Brazil
Prediction vs actual
The match produced 3 goals, above our pre-match expected goals estimate of 2.1. Our Poisson model projected Scotland to generate 0.6xG and Brazil 1.5xG. Scotland's 0 goals came falling short of their pre-match xG projection; Brazil's 3 came against a projection of 1.5xG.
View our full accuracy record →Win probability
Model read
Recent form
Scotland
Brazil
Analysis
Limited data — early in the competitionThe model forecasts Brazil as clear favourites, with a 59% win probability and an expected goals advantage of 1.5 to 0.6, though Scotland's recent win suggests they remain competitive. The most likely outcome is a 1-0 Brazil victory, though the 26% draw probability and 36% chance of both teams scoring indicate meaningful uncertainty given the limited recent form data available. Goals are expected to be relatively scarce, with the model assigning just 36% probability to over 2.5 goals in the match.
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xgprophet · model poisson-v1.2 · predictions read from cached data, never live odds