PREDICTIONS/FIFA World Cup 2026
Fri, 26 Jun 2026 · 19:00 UTCGroup Stage - 3BMO Field

Senegal vs Iraq prediction

Senegal crest
SenegalSEN
PREDICTED2-1most-likely score70% confidence
Iraq crest
IraqIRA

Win probability

70%
16%
14%
SEN win 70%Draw 16%IRA win 14%

Model read

2.81.2
Expected goals
77%
Over 2.5
66%
Both score
70%
Confidence

Recent form

Senegal

LL

Iraq

LL

Analysis

Limited data — early in the competition

The model forecasts Senegal as clear favourites, assigning them a 70% win probability with an expected most-likely scoreline of 2-1, though Iraq's 14% chance reflects their potential to trouble the opposition. Expected goals of 2.8 for Senegal versus 1.2 for Iraq suggest a likely attacking advantage, with the model indicating a 77% probability of over 2.5 goals and a 66% chance of both teams scoring. Both sides arrive on poor recent form with consecutive losses, though the model's forecast is based on limited recent data and should be treated with appropriate caution.

18+

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xgprophet · model poisson-v1.2 · predictions read from cached data, never live odds