Senegal 5–0 Iraq result
Full-time result
xgprophet predicted 2-1 · outcome: Senegal
Prediction vs actual
The match produced 5 goals, above our pre-match expected goals estimate of 4.0. Our Poisson model projected Senegal to generate 2.8xG and Iraq 1.2xG. Senegal's 5 goals came exceeding their pre-match xG projection; Iraq's 0 came against a projection of 1.2xG.
View our full accuracy record →Win probability
Model read
Recent form
Senegal
Iraq
Analysis
Limited data — early in the competitionThe model forecasts Senegal as clear favourites, assigning them a 70% win probability with an expected most-likely scoreline of 2-1, though Iraq's 14% chance reflects their potential to trouble the opposition. Expected goals of 2.8 for Senegal versus 1.2 for Iraq suggest a likely attacking advantage, with the model indicating a 77% probability of over 2.5 goals and a 66% chance of both teams scoring. Both sides arrive on poor recent form with consecutive losses, though the model's forecast is based on limited recent data and should be treated with appropriate caution.
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xgprophet · model poisson-v1.2 · predictions read from cached data, never live odds