South Africa 0–1 Canada result
Full-time result
xgprophet predicted 0-1 · outcome: Canada
Prediction vs actual
The match produced 1 goal, below our pre-match expected goals estimate of 2.6. Our Poisson model projected South Africa to generate 0.9xG and Canada 1.7xG. South Africa's 0 goals came falling short of their pre-match xG projection; Canada's 1 came against a projection of 1.7xG.
View our full accuracy record →Win probability
Model read
Recent form
South Africa
Canada
Analysis
Model: poisson-v1.2The model forecasts Canada as clear favourites with a 57% win probability, predicting an expected goals advantage of 1.7 to 0.9 in their favour and a most-likely scoreline of 0-1. South Africa's recent form shows inconsistency with one win, one draw and one loss, whilst Canada arrive with mixed results of one loss, one win and one draw. The match is expected to be relatively tight in terms of total goals, with the model assigning 49% probability to both over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring.
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xgprophet · model poisson-v1.2 · predictions read from cached data, never live odds