PREDICTIONS/FIFA World Cup 2026
Sun, 19 Jul 2026 · 19:00 UTCFinalMetLife Stadium

Spain 1–0 Argentina result

Full-time result

Spain1–0Argentina✓ Outcome correct

xgprophet predicted 1-0 · outcome: Spain

Spain crest
SpainSPA
PREDICTED1-0most-likely score51% confidence
Argentina crest
ArgentinaARG
Spain predictions →Argentina predictions →
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Outcome (1X2) accuracy 63% · 63 settledPast results do not guarantee future outcomes

Prediction vs actual

1-0
Predicted score
1–0
Actual score
1.3–0.7
Pre-match xG
✓
Outcome call

The match produced 1 goal, below our pre-match expected goals estimate of 2.0. Our Poisson model projected Spain to generate 1.3xG and Argentina 0.7xG. Spain's 1 goal came inline with their pre-match projection; Argentina's 0 came against a projection of 0.7xG.

View our full accuracy record →

Win probability

51%
29%
20%
SPA win 51%Draw 29%ARG win 20%

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Model read

1.3–0.7
Expected goals
33%
Over 2.5
37%
Both score
51%
Confidence

Recent form

Spain

WWWWW

Argentina

LWWWW

Analysis

Model: poisson-v1.2

The model forecasts a competitive encounter with Spain favoured at 51% win probability, though a draw remains likely at 29%. Spain's expected goals advantage of 1.3 to 0.7 underpins the most-likely outcome of a 1-0 victory, with both teams to score predicted at 37% and over 2.5 goals at 33%.

18+

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xgprophet · model poisson-v1.2 · predictions read from cached data, never live odds