Spain 3–0 Austria result
Full-time result
xgprophet predicted 2-0 · outcome: Spain
Prediction vs actual
The match produced 3 goals, closely matching our pre-match expected goals estimate. Our Poisson model projected Spain to generate 2.2xG and Austria 0.6xG. Spain's 3 goals came exceeding their pre-match xG projection; Austria's 0 came against a projection of 0.6xG.
View our full accuracy record →Win probability
Model read
Recent form
Spain
Austria
Analysis
Model: poisson-v1.2The model forecasts Spain as clear favourites, assigning them a 74% win probability with a most-likely scoreline of 2-0. Expected goals of 2.2 for Spain versus 0.6 for Austria reflect a significant quality gap, though the 54% probability of over 2.5 goals and 41% chance of both teams scoring suggest Austria may create some opportunities despite their recent mixed form of one draw and one loss in their last three matches.
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xgprophet · model poisson-v1.2 · predictions read from cached data, never live odds