PREDICTIONS/FIFA World Cup 2026
Fri, 10 Jul 2026 · 19:00 UTCQuarter-finalsSoFi Stadium

Spain 2–1 Belgium result

Full-time result

Spain2–1Belgium✓ Outcome correct

xgprophet predicted 1-0 · outcome: Spain

Spain crest
SpainSPA
PREDICTED1-0most-likely score56% confidence
Belgium crest
BelgiumBEL
Spain predictions →Belgium predictions →
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Outcome (1X2) accuracy 63% · 63 settledPast results do not guarantee future outcomes

Prediction vs actual

1-0
Predicted score
2–1
Actual score
1.4–0.6
Pre-match xG
✓
Outcome call

The match produced 3 goals, above our pre-match expected goals estimate of 2.0. Our Poisson model projected Spain to generate 1.4xG and Belgium 0.6xG. Spain's 2 goals came exceeding their pre-match xG projection; Belgium's 1 came against a projection of 0.6xG.

View our full accuracy record →

Win probability

56%
28%
16%
SPA win 56%Draw 28%BEL win 16%

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Model read

1.4–0.6
Expected goals
33%
Over 2.5
34%
Both score
56%
Confidence

Recent form

Spain

WWWWW

Belgium

LWWWD

Analysis

Model: poisson-v1.2

The model forecasts Spain as favourites, projecting a 56% win probability with an expected most-likely scoreline of 1-0. Spain's superior expected goals output of 1.4 compared to Belgium's 0.6 reflects their recent dominant form of four consecutive wins, whilst Belgium's recent record shows two draws in their last five matches. The probability of over 2.5 goals is relatively low at 33%, suggesting a controlled match with limited scoring opportunities.

18+

AI forecast for information and entertainment only — not betting advice and no guarantee of outcome. Please gamble responsibly. If gambling affects you or someone you know, support is available at GamCare (0808 8020 133) and GAMSTOP.

xgprophet · model poisson-v1.2 · predictions read from cached data, never live odds