Tunisia 1–3 Netherlands result
Full-time result
xgprophet predicted 0-4 · outcome: Netherlands
Prediction vs actual
The match produced 4 goals, below our pre-match expected goals estimate of 5.7. Our Poisson model projected Tunisia to generate 0.9xG and Netherlands 4.8xG. Tunisia's 1 goal came inline with their pre-match projection; Netherlands's 3 came against a projection of 4.8xG.
View our full accuracy record →Win probability
Model read
Recent form
Tunisia
Netherlands
Analysis
Limited data — early in the competitionThe xgprophet model forecasts a dominant Netherlands victory, assigning them a 93% win probability with an expected goals differential heavily in their favour at 4.8 versus Tunisia's 0.9. The most-likely scoreline is 0-4 to the Netherlands, though the model indicates a 59% chance of both teams scoring and a 92% probability of over 2.5 goals in the match. Tunisia arrive in poor recent form with consecutive defeats, whilst the Netherlands show mixed results from their last two outings.
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xgprophet · model poisson-v1.2 · predictions read from cached data, never live odds