Türkiye 3–2 USA result
Full-time result
xgprophet predicted 0-2 · outcome: USA
Prediction vs actual
The match produced 5 goals, above our pre-match expected goals estimate of 2.9. Our Poisson model projected Türkiye to generate 0.6xG and USA 2.3xG. Türkiye's 3 goals came exceeding their pre-match xG projection; USA's 2 came against a projection of 2.3xG.
View our full accuracy record →Win probability
Model read
Recent form
Türkiye
USA
Analysis
Limited data — early in the competitionThe xgprophet model forecasts a dominant USA performance, assigning them a 76% win probability with an expected goals advantage of 2.3 to 0.6. Türkiye's recent form of two consecutive losses contrasts sharply with USA's winning streak, though the model suggests a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals in what could be a competitive fixture. The most likely outcome is a 0-2 victory for USA, though limited recent data means this forecast should be treated with appropriate caution.
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xgprophet · model poisson-v1.2 · predictions read from cached data, never live odds