Uruguay 0–1 Spain result
Full-time result
xgprophet predicted 0-1 · outcome: Spain
Prediction vs actual
The match produced 1 goal, below our pre-match expected goals estimate of 2.5. Our Poisson model projected Uruguay to generate 0.7xG and Spain 1.8xG. Uruguay's 0 goals came falling short of their pre-match xG projection; Spain's 1 came against a projection of 1.8xG.
View our full accuracy record →Win probability
Model read
Recent form
Uruguay
Spain
Analysis
Limited data — early in the competitionThe model forecasts Spain as strong favourites with a 64% win probability, predicting a most-likely scoreline of 0-1 and an expected goals advantage of 1.9 to 0.7. Uruguay's recent form shows mixed results with two draws, whilst Spain have won their last match, though the limited recent data available means these predictions should be treated with appropriate caution. The model suggests a 48% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 44% probability of both teams scoring.
AI forecast for information and entertainment only — not betting advice and no guarantee of outcome. Please gamble responsibly. If gambling affects you or someone you know, support is available at GamCare (0808 8020 133) and GAMSTOP.
xgprophet · model poisson-v1.2 · predictions read from cached data, never live odds