USA 1–4 Belgium result
Full-time result
xgprophet predicted 1-1 · outcome: USA
Prediction vs actual
The match produced 5 goals, above our pre-match expected goals estimate of 3.1. Our Poisson model projected USA to generate 1.6xG and Belgium 1.5xG. USA's 1 goal came falling short of their pre-match xG projection; Belgium's 4 came against a projection of 1.5xG.
View our full accuracy record →Win probability
Model read
Recent form
USA
Belgium
Analysis
Model: poisson-v1.2The model forecasts a closely contested match with USA favoured at 40% win probability versus Belgium's 36%, though a draw at 24% remains plausible given both sides' recent form. Expected goals are nearly balanced at 1.6 for USA and 1.5 for Belgium, with the model suggesting a most-likely scoreline of 1-1 and a 63% probability of both teams scoring. Over 2.5 goals is forecast at 61%, indicating the model expects an open encounter despite Belgium's recent draws.
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xgprophet · model poisson-v1.2 · predictions read from cached data, never live odds