Football betting guides
Plain-English guides to football betting markets, prediction models, and match statistics. Data-backed. Information only — not betting advice.
10 guides published
Core conceptWhat is xG in Football?Expected goals explained — how it's calculated, why it matters more than the final score, and how xgprophet uses it.Model guideHow to Predict Football MatchesStep-by-step guide to the Poisson model approach — from team form and xG to win/draw/loss probabilities.AccuracyHow Accurate Are Football Predictions?What to realistically expect from a model, where accuracy comes from, and xgprophet's own live accuracy record.Bet typeWhat Does 1X2 Mean in Football?Home win, draw, away win — the most common bet type explained with odds conversion and Poisson probabilities.Odds & valueHow to Read Betting OddsDecimal, fractional and American odds explained — your return, the implied probability, and the bookmaker's margin.Bet typeWhat Does BTTS Mean in Football?Both Teams to Score — how the market works, Poisson probabilities, and when BTTS is worth considering.Bet typeWhat Is Correct Score in Football Betting?Joint Poisson model for exact scorelines, why correct-score markets are hard to beat, and realistic expectations.Bet typeWhat Does Over 2.5 Goals Mean?Over/under goal markets explained — how xG drives the probability and when the data supports the bet.Bet typeWhat Is Double Chance in Football Betting?1X, X2, and 12 — the double-chance markets and when covering two outcomes makes statistical sense.Bet typeWhat Is a Lucky 15 Bet?All 15 bets from 4 selections explained — singles, doubles, trebles, four-fold, total cost, and the Lucky bonus.
Free tools
Free toolAccumulator CalculatorAdd 2–12 selections and a stake for combined odds, total return and profit — or load today's model acca.Free toolOdds ConverterSwitch instantly between decimal, fractional and American odds, with the implied probability.Free toolLucky 15 CalculatorEnter 4 selections' decimal odds and a stake. Tick which won. Instant return, profit/loss, and breakdown by bet type.
Today’s predictions
The model runs Poisson predictions on all tracked fixtures. Browse today’s tips, accumulator picks, or Lucky 15 selections.
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