Football prediction guides

Data-backed explainers on how football prediction models work, what xG means, and how to read statistics. Information only — no betting advice.

What is xG in Football?Expected goals explained — how it's calculated, why it matters more than the scoreline, and how xgprophet uses it.

How Do Football Prediction Models Work? — coming soonA walkthrough of the Poisson model approach — from expected goals to win/draw/loss probabilities.

Poisson Distribution in Football Predictions — coming soonThe maths behind the model — why Poisson works for football and where it falls short.

xgprophet · information only, not betting advice · 18+