Premier League 2026/27 predictions

2026/27 season overview

The Premier League 2026/27 season opens in early August 2026 with 20 clubs competing across 38 matchdays (380 fixtures total). xgprophet generates pre-match predictions for every fixture using a Poisson model trained on recent form — win probabilities, predicted scorelines, and xG estimates. Fixtures appear below as soon as the API publishes the schedule and our nightly cron ingests them.

xG expectations

A typical Premier League game produces around 2.5 combined expected goals — roughly 1.4–1.7 xG for the home side versus 1.0–1.3 for the away team. Home advantage is built into our model (~+20% boost to the home team's expected goals). Historically, around 45% of PL matches end in a home win, 27% a draw, and 28% an away win — our Poisson probabilities reflect those base rates adjusted for each team's recent form.

Read more: What is xG? · Model methodology · Track record