Correct score predictions
How the model worksOur public record: 63% match-outcome accuracy · 63 settled (World Cup 2026 to date)Past results do not guarantee future outcomes
The single most likely exact scorelinefor each match in the next 48 hours, ranked by its probability. Correct scores are genuinely hard — even the likeliest result usually lands only around 10–15%, so treat these as the model’s best single guess, not a confident call. Information only, not betting advice.
No rated fixtures in the next 48 hours. Check back closer to kick-off.
How correct score predictions work
Each predicted scoreline is the highest joint-probability result from our Poisson model: P(home=k, away=m) = P(home k goals) × P(away m goals). Even the most likely scoreline carries only 10–15% probability — that’s not a flaw, it’s how football works. Information only.
xgprophet · Poisson model on cached data · 18+ · information only, not betting advice