World Cup 2026 bracket predictor
Poisson-model probabilities for every WC2026 knockout match — updated after each result. Not a bracket game: real statistical analysis. How the model works →
Tournament favourites — model rankings
Teams ranked by their Poisson win probability in the next scheduled knockout match. Updates after each result.
Round of 32
Round-by-round analysis
Round of 32 predictions · Round of 16 predictions · Quarter-final predictions · Semi-final predictions · Final prediction
How the bracket predictor works
Unlike bracket games where you fill in picks before the tournament, this predictor runs our Poisson distribution modelon every knockout fixture as soon as it’s confirmed in the schedule. The model uses each team’s recent international form to estimate expected goals (xG), then computes win, draw, and loss probabilities from a score-grid simulation across 100+ scorelines. Probabilities update after every match result — so the rankings above reflect current form, not pre-tournament ratings. Full methodology →
WC2026 knockout format
The 2026 World Cup introduced a new 48-team format. After 12 groups of four, the top two from each group plus the eight best third-place finishers — 32 teams in total — enter the knockout stage. From there it’s a standard bracket: Round of 32, Round of 16, Quarter-finals (9–11 Jul), Semi-finals (14–15 Jul), Third-place Play-off (18 Jul), and the Final on 19 July 2026 at MetLife Stadium, New Jersey.
World Cup predictor FAQ
- Is this a bracket game I can fill in?
- No — this is a statistical model, not a prediction game. Our Poisson model automatically assigns win probabilities to each knockout match based on team form. The model updates after every result.
- Why does your model differ from bookmaker odds?
- Betting odds include a bookmaker margin and reflect public money flows, not pure form data. Our model is calibrated solely on goal-scoring rates from recent international matches. Sometimes the model agrees with the market; sometimes it diverges — and that divergence is the interesting part.
- When is the WC2026 Final?
- 19 July 2026 at MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, New Jersey.
- Is this betting advice?
- No. xgprophet is information only — probabilities reflect our statistical model, not guaranteed outcomes. 18+ only. Gamble responsibly: GamCare 0808 8020 133 · GAMSTOP.
xgprophet · Poisson model · WC2026 bracket predictor · 18+ · information only, not betting advice