World Cup 2026 bracket predictor

Poisson-model probabilities for every WC2026 knockout match — updated after each result. Not a bracket game: real statistical analysis. How the model works →

Round of 32

28 JunSouth Africa0–1Canadapred 19%/57%29 JunBrazil2–1Japanpred 54%/22%29 JunGermany1–1Paraguaypred 74%/10%30 JunNetherlands1–1Moroccopred 50%/29%30 JunIvory Coast1–2Norwaypred 45%/32%30 JunFrance3–0Swedenpred 81%/8%1 JulMexico2–0Ecuadorpred 54%/15%1 JulEngland2–1Congo DRpred 58%/18%1 JulBelgium3–2Senegalpred 52%/26%2 JulUSA2–0Bosnia & Herzegovinapred 64%/18%2 JulSpain3–0Austriapred 74%/9%2 JulPortugal2–1Croatiapred 65%/14%3 JulSwitzerland2–0Algeriapred 69%/15%3 JulAustralia1–1Egyptpred 29%/41%3 JulArgentina3–2Cape Verde Islandspred 67%/10%4 JulColombia1–0Ghanapred 49%/18%

Round of 16

4 JulCanada0–3Moroccopred 41%/33%4 JulParaguay0–1Francepred 6%/81%5 JulBrazil1–2Norwaypred 71%/13%6 JulMexico2–3Englandpred 46%/23%6 JulPortugal0–1Spainpred 22%/44%7 JulUSA1–4Belgiumpred 41%/36%7 JulArgentina3–2Egyptpred 63%/16%7 JulSwitzerland0–0Colombiapred 33%/35%

Quarter-finals

9 JulFrance2–0Moroccopred 57%/19%10 JulSpain2–1Belgiumpred 56%/16%11 JulNorway1–2Englandpred 21%/60%12 JulArgentina3–1Switzerlandpred 42%/33%

Semi-finals

14 JulFrance0–2Spainpred 33%/31%15 JulEngland1–2Argentinapred 32%/45%

Third-place Play-off

18 JulFrance4–6Englandpred 54%/22%

Final

19 JulSpain1–0Argentinapred 51%/20%

Round-by-round analysis

Round of 32 predictions · Round of 16 predictions · Quarter-final predictions · Semi-final predictions · Final prediction

How the bracket predictor works

Unlike bracket games where you fill in picks before the tournament, this predictor runs our Poisson distribution modelon every knockout fixture as soon as it’s confirmed in the schedule. The model uses each team’s recent international form to estimate expected goals (xG), then computes win, draw, and loss probabilities from a score-grid simulation across 100+ scorelines. Probabilities update after every match result — so the rankings above reflect current form, not pre-tournament ratings. Full methodology →

WC2026 knockout format

The 2026 World Cup introduced a new 48-team format. After 12 groups of four, the top two from each group plus the eight best third-place finishers — 32 teams in total — enter the knockout stage. From there it’s a standard bracket: Round of 32, Round of 16, Quarter-finals (9–11 Jul), Semi-finals (14–15 Jul), Third-place Play-off (18 Jul), and the Final on 19 July 2026 at MetLife Stadium, New Jersey.

World Cup predictor FAQ

Is this a bracket game I can fill in?
No — this is a statistical model, not a prediction game. Our Poisson model automatically assigns win probabilities to each knockout match based on team form. The model updates after every result.
Why does your model differ from bookmaker odds?
Betting odds include a bookmaker margin and reflect public money flows, not pure form data. Our model is calibrated solely on goal-scoring rates from recent international matches. Sometimes the model agrees with the market; sometimes it diverges — and that divergence is the interesting part.
When is the WC2026 Final?
19 July 2026 at MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, New Jersey.
Is this betting advice?
No. xgprophet is information only — probabilities reflect our statistical model, not guaranteed outcomes. 18+ only. Gamble responsibly: GamCare 0808 8020 133 · GAMSTOP.

xgprophet · Poisson model · WC2026 bracket predictor · 18+ · information only, not betting advice