WC2026 Quarter-finals predictions
Poisson-model win probabilities for every Quarter-finals fixture — updated after each result. How the model works →
Fixtures load automatically once confirmed by FIFA. Check back after the previous round completes.
← Bracket predictor — tournament favouritesHow the model works
Each team’s recent international form is used to compute expected goals (xG) via a Poisson distribution. We then run a score-grid simulation across 100+ scorelines to produce exact win, draw, and loss percentages. The model recomputes after every match result — so probabilities above reflect current form, not pre-tournament ratings. Full methodology →
Other rounds
Round of 32 · Round of 16 · Semi-finals · Third-place Play-off · Final · Full bracket predictor
FAQ
- How does xgprophet predict WC2026 Quarter-finals matches?
- A Poisson distribution model calibrated on each team’s recent international form estimates expected goals, then computes a full score-grid to give exact win/draw/loss percentages. The model updates after every result.
- When are the WC2026 Quarter-finals?
- Check the fixture list above for confirmed dates and kick-off times (shown in UTC).
- Is this betting advice?
- No. xgprophet is information only — probabilities reflect our statistical model, not guaranteed outcomes. 18+ only. Please gamble responsibly: GamCare 0808 8020 133 · GAMSTOP.
xgprophet · Poisson model · WC2026 Quarter-finals · 18+ · information only, not betting advice