WC2026 Round of 32 predictions
Poisson-model win probabilities for every Round of 32 fixture — updated after each result. How the model works →
Upcoming — 9 fixtures
19:00Sun 28 JunSouth Africa0-1Canada57%D 24%17:00Mon 29 JunBrazil1-0Japan54%D 24%20:30Mon 29 JunGermany2-0Paraguay74%D 16%01:00Tue 30 JunNetherlands2-1Morocco50%D 21%17:00Tue 30 JunIvory Coast1-1Norway45%D 23%21:00Tue 30 JunFrance3-1Sweden81%D 11%00:00Thu 2 JulUSA2-1Bosnia & Herzegovina64%D 17%18:00Fri 3 JulAustralia0-1Egypt41%D 30%22:00Fri 3 JulArgentina1-0Cape Verde Islands66%D 24%
How the model works
Each team’s recent international form is used to compute expected goals (xG) via a Poisson distribution. We then run a score-grid simulation across 100+ scorelines to produce exact win, draw, and loss percentages. The model recomputes after every match result — so probabilities above reflect current form, not pre-tournament ratings. Full methodology →
Other rounds
Round of 16 · Quarter-finals · Semi-finals · Third-place Play-off · Final · Full bracket predictor
FAQ
- How does xgprophet predict WC2026 Round of 32 matches?
- A Poisson distribution model calibrated on each team’s recent international form estimates expected goals, then computes a full score-grid to give exact win/draw/loss percentages. The model updates after every result.
- When are the WC2026 Round of 32?
- Check the fixture list above for confirmed dates and kick-off times (shown in UTC).
- Is this betting advice?
- No. xgprophet is information only — probabilities reflect our statistical model, not guaranteed outcomes. 18+ only. Please gamble responsibly: GamCare 0808 8020 133 · GAMSTOP.
xgprophet · Poisson model · WC2026 Round of 32 · 18+ · information only, not betting advice