WC2026 Round of 32 predictions
Poisson-model win probabilities for every Round of 32 fixture — updated after each result. How the model works →
Results — 16 played
Sun 28 JunSouth Africa0–1Canadapred 19%/57%Mon 29 JunBrazil2–1Japanpred 54%/22%Mon 29 JunGermany1–1Paraguaypred 74%/10%Tue 30 JunNetherlands1–1Moroccopred 50%/29%Tue 30 JunIvory Coast1–2Norwaypred 45%/32%Tue 30 JunFrance3–0Swedenpred 81%/8%Wed 1 JulMexico2–0Ecuadorpred 54%/15%Wed 1 JulEngland2–1Congo DRpred 58%/18%Wed 1 JulBelgium3–2Senegalpred 52%/26%Thu 2 JulUSA2–0Bosnia & Herzegovinapred 64%/18%Thu 2 JulSpain3–0Austriapred 74%/9%Thu 2 JulPortugal2–1Croatiapred 65%/14%Fri 3 JulSwitzerland2–0Algeriapred 69%/15%Fri 3 JulAustralia1–1Egyptpred 29%/41%Fri 3 JulArgentina3–2Cape Verde Islandspred 67%/10%Sat 4 JulColombia1–0Ghanapred 49%/18%
How the model works
Each team’s recent international form is used to compute expected goals (xG) via a Poisson distribution. We then run a score-grid simulation across 100+ scorelines to produce exact win, draw, and loss percentages. The model recomputes after every match result — so probabilities above reflect current form, not pre-tournament ratings. Full methodology →
Other rounds
Round of 16 · Quarter-finals · Semi-finals · Third-place Play-off · Final · Full bracket predictor
FAQ
- How does xgprophet predict WC2026 Round of 32 matches?
- A Poisson distribution model calibrated on each team’s recent international form estimates expected goals, then computes a full score-grid to give exact win/draw/loss percentages. The model updates after every result.
- When are the WC2026 Round of 32?
- Check the fixture list above for confirmed dates and kick-off times (shown in UTC).
- Is this betting advice?
- No. xgprophet is information only — probabilities reflect our statistical model, not guaranteed outcomes. 18+ only. Please gamble responsibly: GamCare 0808 8020 133 · GAMSTOP.
xgprophet · Poisson model · WC2026 Round of 32 · 18+ · information only, not betting advice